GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We arrived at the family ranch in northern Argentina last night…

This morning, we rub the sleep from our eyes and look out the window.

Whoa… it’s greener than we expected. We were in the second year of a disastrous drought.

What happened?

We’ll find out…

Meantime…

Win-Lose Marriages

“You know, your description of win-lose deals applies to individuals in their personal, private lives as well as to the economy,” explained a close friend.

“Some people think life is a struggle with other people… and they only get ahead by getting the best of someone else. They feel good about themselves only if they make you feel bad.

“I guess they think happiness is a zero-sum game… that there’s only so much of it in the world so that you can only get it by taking it away from someone else.

“They think it’s a win-lose world… and that they have to be tough to win. So they are always trying to make the other guy lose.

“I’ve even seen it in marriages. A husband (or the wife) feels he is in competition with his spouse. He criticizes her… He complains about her. He tries to bring her down. It’s a way to elevate himself, I guess.

“I know one guy who even pressured his girlfriend into marrying him. He was sure that’s what he wanted. When she hesitated… he nagged and bullied until she went along.

“It didn’t work out very well. They divorced after a few years. It turned out that she didn’t really want to marry him in the first place.

“Some people are political. They get ahead by manipulating other people… by making others look bad… backstabbing… intriguing… always driving hard bargains.

“They need to dominate conversations. They try to control other people to get them to do what they want. In business, they think they have to beat the other guy. In private life, they are always trying to prove that they are smarter, faster, better looking.

“Psychologists probably have a word for it.

“They go to work for the TSA… or go into the government – anywhere they can get a little power over other people.”

Disappearing Credit

Back in the world of economics…

All across the banking world – from commercial loans to leases and real estate – credit is collapsing.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing for British newspaper The Telegraph:

Credit strategists are increasingly disturbed by a sudden and rare contraction of U.S. bank lending, fearing a synchronized slowdown in the U.S. and China this year that could catch euphoric markets badly off guard…

Data from the U.S. Federal Reserve shows that the $2 trillion market for commercial and industrial loans peaked in December.

The sector has weakened abruptly as lenders tighten credit, especially for non-residential property. Over the last three months it has dropped at a rate of 5.4% on annual basis, a pace of decline not seen since December 2008.

If new loans aren’t made, the supply of credit money will contract. That’s the “doomsday device” embedded in our credit money system: It is subject to sharp and disastrous drawdowns in the money supply.

When loans are paid or written off, the outstanding credit (money) ceases to exist. This reduces the money supply… and triggers corrections, recessions, or market crashes.

Real money doesn’t disappear in a credit contraction. But our fake “credit money” does. This makes the entire system vulnerable to the credit cycle. Credit increases. Then it decreases.

And as credit money vanishes, the recession deepens… causing the credit market to tighten further… and causing more money to disappear.

That’s why a credit contraction is so dangerous in today’s world. With more than $200 trillion in outstanding debt, even a soft contraction could lead to a worldwide depression.

That’s why the Fed will not risk jacking up interest rates too far, too fast.

Instead, it will follow inflation… and then do an immediate about-face when the credit cycle turns around.

Stay tuned…

Regards,

Signature

Bill

Further Reading: A parade greeted Bill when he arrived in northern Argentina. Today, he shares a picture from the festivities.

The parade scene from Salta, Argentina

 

America’s Secret Civil War – Part I


BY PORTER STANSBERRY, FOUNDER, STANSBERRY RESEARCH


Editor’s Note: Today, Bill’s longtime friend and business partner Porter Stansberry exposes a government program so dark and secretive that even divulging its name is a crime punishable by at least 10 years in a secret prison.


Today, an emerging story about the secret civil war being waged right now in Washington, D.C…

It is about to have a HUGE impact on our country.

Two warnings before we begin…

First, what I know so far is deeply troubling. We’re approaching what will be the most dangerous period in our country’s political history since the Great Depression. What could happen next scares me.

But I continue to be optimistic that what will unfold will be great for our country.

Until I did my own follow-up research to verify what I could from my sources, I disregarded this story as “political nonsense” or just another D.C. conspiracy theory.

Besides… it was all too horrible to believe. But then… almost everything my sources told me would happen started happening…

Beyond Top Secret

Let’s begin here…

Did you know the U.S. government has a secrecy designation so restricted that virtually nobody – not even lifetime members of the intelligence community – even knows what it’s called? It’s not “TOP SECRET.” It’s way beyond that level.

In late 2009, President Obama created this new level of secrecy inside our government with an executive order (No. 13526) – so Congress never approved it.

Administered by the CIA, this new level of secrecy has created a covert government-within-the-government that almost nobody knows about and absolutely nobody is monitoring.

If you’ve ever heard the term the “Deep State” – the secret government-within-the-government that actually holds power – then you know why a level of secrecy beyond “top secret” is so important.

This new, more restricted level of secrecy was created so that the most powerful leaders of our government could communicate in total isolation.

This level of secrecy is such a closely guarded secret that the name of the program itself is classified – and divulging the name is a crime punishable by at least 10 years in a secret prison. So this level of security clearance is known only as “codeword.”

The Metropolitan Man

At the highest levels of our D.C. government, only two dozen or so people have codeword clearances…

I learned about this earlier this month. I was invited to lunch with someone who has held that level of security clearance. He told me about the existence of the codeword-level program. This isn’t a rumor. It’s a fact.

For the last 30-plus years, my source has worked for and around the highest levels of our government. He is currently regarded as the president’s most likely choice to become our next Federal Reserve chairman.

Today, however, his clients include the world’s top hedge-fund managers and the leaders of America’s biggest corporations. He is, in short, America’s corporate representative of the Deep State.

We call him the “Metropolitan Man”…

Porter Stansberry

Editor’s Note: Come back tomorrow for Part II of Porter’s exposé on the secret civil war happening in Washington right now…

And make sure you tune in Wednesday night at 8 p.m. ET when the “Metropolitan Man” steps out of the shadows to explain how President Trump’s new economic model “will bring massive wealth and prosperity.”

The cost to attend this meeting in person is $25,000… but our friends at Stansberry & Associates have graciously arranged a live conference call for Diary readers for only $19.95.

Porter says “this is easily the most important and valuable meeting I’ve ever arranged.” So you do not want to miss it. Get more details here.

Featured Reads

Commercial Real Estate Is the Next “Big Short”
Last Thursday, President Reagan’s budget chief warned readers of the coming collapse in commercial real estate. Now hedge funds are getting ready to profit from the looming crisis.

The Age of Automation Is Just Getting Started
Job losses were a major theme in the 2016 election. And with the number of industrial robots set to triple in the coming years, this trend isn’t slowing anytime soon.

Why Trump Won’t Cut Taxes
Trump says he wants to slash taxes. But without a solution to the government’s looming budget crisis, his plans are dead on arrival.

Mailbag

Readers continue to write in with their take on the nature of money in response to last Thursday’s Diary, “An Honest Society Needs Honest Money.”

Your column struck a real nerve, the nail on the head, etc. – as usual I might add. Keep up the good fight, as there are so few of left who will.

– K. Greenough

I have been reading and enjoying your daily musings for years. Fascinating to see you connecting the dots, putting two and two together and in so doing adding pieces to the jigsaw until the picture gets clearer and clearer.

The nature of money, the Deep State, Main Street and Wall Street, great stuff. Only: We all need to justify what we do in some terms. We all need moral justification somehow.

What would be the morality that makes all this possible? You say Money represents who we are… what we’ve done… what we know… how much we’ve done for others… I agree except for that last one.

Whatever I am I did it for myself and for all that is important to ME. Doing for others is exactly the justification they all use. As long as it is for others, anything goes.

– N. Bruijn

In general I enjoy reading Bill’s daily musings. But I have to take exception to some of his pronouncements in today’s edition. Bill wrote: “Money is not something apart from us. It represents who we are…”

Not at all. This may be true for some people, but not for all of us, hopefully not for the majority of us. We are MUCH more than our money. Our money does not “represent who we are.”

Money is PART of who we are, of course, It is a measure of our commercial success (and/or luck). And doubtlessly it is important for many reasons, providing us with a degree of freedom, among others.

But how we raise our children, how we help the next generation with advice, mentoring, etc., what we do for our friends and for society as a whole (aside from donating money) represents much more who we are than our money does, in my opinion.

– T. S.

For some time I have been thinking about the implications upon society of dishonest money and I believe that the consequences have been far reaching and only understood fully by the almighty.

In Leviticus 19:35-36, “You shall do no wrong in judgment, in measures of length or weight or quantity. You shall have just balances, just weights, a just ephah, and a just hin. I am the Lord your God, who brought you out of the land of Egypt.”

And in Proverbs 11:1, it says, “A false balance is an abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is his delight.”

– J. Brewer