CORPORATE APARTMENT, BALTIMORE – Another big prediction we’ve been making in these Postcards:
The dollar and gold will BOTH rise.
We took flack for this position when we began suggesting it nine months ago. How is our prediction turning out? More below…
Greetings from Mount Vernon!
We’re enjoying our last few days in Baltimore before we go overseas again.
We’ve loved living here… admiring the elegant Mount Vernon neighborhood, visiting museums, hanging out with other homeschool kids, and catching up with old friends. We’re going to miss it.
We even got to visit Washington, D.C., which is like one giant monument to enlightenment. There’s introspection around every corner. It is one of the most thought-provoking places we’ve ever been.
My father is visiting us now. He’s been teaching the kids chemistry (he’s an amateur scientist), showing them World War Two films, and here he is playing board games with the boys…
My father, Miles, and Dusty playing board games
Long Walk Down the Mountain
The stock market is in a “valuations bear market.” Or, as we like to say in these notes, it’s making the “long walk down the mountain” from expensive to cheap. (I explained this in more detail here.)
We have been in this valuations bear market since 2000, but valuations have been in a counter trend rally since 2009 and they’re forming a secondary peak.
I’m expecting the valuations bear to reassert itself soon, and stock market valuations will resume their “walk down the mountain” back to “cheap.”
Typically, these valuation bear markets take a generation to complete and include four to six recessions. We’ve already had two recessions in this cycle, so I’m expecting to see at least two more recessions over the next decade.
If my hypothesis is right, and we’ve got several recessions in a row coming, the U.S. dollar should receive a “safe haven” bid from the world’s pool of capital and savings. It’ll rise against all other currencies.
President Trump, Wall Street and the Federal Reserve won’t be happy about this because it crimps their ability to create inflation. They’ll work hard to lower the dollar. Gold will rise.
Meanwhile, America’s trading partners, particularly Japan, Germany, and China, will want their currencies to fall, too, because cheaper currencies improve their competitiveness in export markets. So they’ll work hard to lower their currencies as well. The result will be a sort of synchronized global devaluation… or “race to the bottom.”
Which brings us back to our unusual position: The dollar will rise against other currencies, but gold will rise even more. It’s already happening…
The first chart shows the dollar’s value against other currencies. It’s been rising since 2018. The second chart shows gold rising against the dollar, also since 2018.
These trends are just beginning. Gold will be the strongest “money” over the next few years. And the dollar will be its strongest currency. Also, in a valuations bear market, it’s better to sit on the sidelines in gold than hold stocks.
– Tom Dyson
P.S. Gold is soaring all around the world. There are only four financial centers left in the world where gold is NOT selling at its highest price in history (local currency terms): the United States, China, Switzerland, and Japan.
Europe succumbed last year. Japan and Switzerland will succumb soon. That’ll leave only China and the USA. Gold must rise another 19% to set a new all-time high in dollar terms. As China’s currency is linked to the dollar, the yuan should succumb to a gold all-time high at roughly the same time as the dollar does.
Once gold is trading at all-time highs everywhere, it should start getting a lot more attention from investors…
Here’s gold in Japanese yen… at 40-year highs… nearing all-time highs…
A travel recommendation in today’s mailbag, along with questions about buying and storing gold in Europe… and Tom’s comments about the U.S. government’s gargantuan borrowing habits…
Reader comment: Love these Postcards. They’re the first thing I read when I find them. I find myself planning where you and your family should go next! How about Mexico? It’s close by, inexpensive, and has plenty of culture to offer. Many expats live there, too. Thanks for giving us geography lessons (as well as economic ones).
Tom’s response: Great suggestion. Mexico is one of my favorite places in the world. We may settle there permanently when we’ve finished traveling. It checks all the boxes. My favorite towns are Cuernavaca, Taxco, Oaxaca, San Cristóbal de las Casas, and San Miguel de Allende.
Reader question: Greetings from SW France. I’m a UK citizen living in France and just retired. Where can I buy gold here or in the UK and store it with a trustworthy organization?
Inspiring postcards, both of your life and views on gold. A must-read every day.
Tom’s response: I’ve heard good things about bullionvault.com, but I’ve never used it myself so I can’t give it my personal recommendation.
Reader question: When you said, "Unless they change the way they inject liquidity into the economy – and they might" in Tuesday’s Postcard, what type of change are you talking about?
Tom’s response: Good question. The problem with the way they’re injecting liquidity now is that it seems to flow straight into asset markets and bypass the real economy. So it benefits the wealthy, who own all the stocks, but no one else. Voters probably won’t stand for this for much longer, especially when recession comes.
My guess is, they’ll get the Federal Reserve to finance a giant infrastructure renovation, like the Chinese and Japanese have done. It’s a much more politically-savvy way of printing money than blowing bubbles in the stock market, as they’re doing now.
Reader comment: I started reading your Postcards only a few months ago, and I’ve really appreciated reading your writings with global perspective, intimate personal and family matters, the analysis of global financial trends and patterns, insights into many things, sharing your readers’ comments and your replies to them, etc.
I get to read not only your views, but also Kate’s and those of other family members! The mixture of travel blog, financial newsletter, personal blog, family blog, etc. is very refreshing.
Tom’s note: Thanks for the kind note! As you know, your messages are integral to these Postcards. Please don’t stop writing us at [email protected].