RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Today we had fish tacos for lunch at a little taco stand on the beach. Here’s the view we had while we ate…
Our lunch view
Where do I begin? It’s paradise here.
We’re staying in a secluded little cottage by the beach. We spend sunrise at the beach, bodysurfing and digging holes in the sand.
Then we spend the hot part of the day indoors. I sift through financial news and I write these Postcards. Kate and the kids do their schoolwork.
Then in the afternoon we go to the clubhouse for supper and a swim in the pool.
When the sun goes down, I walk over to Bill Bonner’s house and we have a drink together and discuss ideas. (We’re Bill’s guests here. He stays in the house next door.)
What Saved Us After Our Divorce
Yesterday I explained why Kate and I got divorced.
It wasn’t an acrimonious divorce, but we definitely weren’t friends either. As soon as we signed the papers, we went our separate ways.
We didn’t get together for the kids’ birthdays or Christmas, for example. We just passed the kids back and forth on weekends like every other divorced couple. Kate had them for 11 days then I had them for three days.
We both found new partners. Kate met someone very quickly and they were still together when we started our trip around the world, four years later. (More on this another time.)
I dated for a while before I met someone, and then we had a very rocky on-off relationship that lasted two years and hurt me in the end.
In a lot of divorces and broken relationships, you find there’s a crazy one and a sensible one.
Kate formed a stable new household and she kept homeschooling the kids. I was the crazy one. I became manic-depressive, selfish, and kind of a dick. I’m not proud of that.
I definitely wasn’t a good parent, either. In fact, I dreaded the kids coming over for my weekend. Then I couldn’t wait to get rid of them on Monday morning. And in the meantime, I made them spend a lot of time on their iPads and I didn’t feed them properly.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think we’d be here today if Kate hadn’t ended all contact with me during this stage.
If we’d tried to be friends and co-parent together at birthday parties, etc. I don’t think we’d have come back from that. I was in too much of a mess…
How did we get from “no contact” to traveling the world together? A story for another time…
A CEO Anomaly
I noticed an anomaly today.
In January there was a spike in the number of CEOs who have stepped down from their positions.
The list includes the CEOs of Disney, MGM, IBM, LinkedIn, Credit Suisse, Mastercard, L Brands, Uber Eats, Hulu, Salesforce, and Nestlé.
Why are so many CEOs stepping down? I’m not sure… but it’s something that also happened in 2008 and 2002.
What I’m Watching for Next
Right now we’re in what the pros call the “liquidation stage.” It’s indiscriminate selling. Even gold stocks are being liquidated.
This has nothing to do with future earnings potential and everything to do with making the pain stop now.
None of this is surprising to me.
After 30 years of central bank stimulus, the Federal Reserve put, and government bailouts, investors and businesses were (still are) the most leveraged they’ve ever been in history. Now that things are declining, the losses are being magnified (just as the profits were on the way up).
What I’m watching for next is policy response.
When will they cut interest rates? When will they begin the curve control I’ve been writing about? When will the Fed start expanding its balance sheet? Will they ban short selling? (Turkey did today.) Will they begin handing out money? (Hong Kong is giving around $1,250 to every permanent resident over the age of 18 this year.)
Once policy response begins, panicked liquidation will end… and trillions of dollars will slosh back into assets. The question is, where will those dollars go?
One place I know they’ll go is into gold, silver, and mining stocks.
So watch out. This is the moment the bull market in gold moves from “simmering” to “boiling vigorously.”
Proceed With Caution
The market action has been pretty wild this week.
I hope these Postcards helped you prepare for it. But even if you haven’t prepared yet, it’s not too late to sell some stocks and buy some gold.
These trends are just beginning, and they still have a long way to go.
The markets won’t always be as wild as they’ve been this week – and the Dow-to-Gold ratio may even bounce next week – but the primary trend in the Dow-to-Gold ratio will continue to be down.
– Tom Dyson
P.S. This will be our ride for the rest of the time we’re in Rancho Santana!
Kate and the kids in our new ride
Marriage is on readers’ minds today, along with buying gold…
Reader comment: I’m going to add my two cents’ worth to the marriage conversation. Background: I married young. 19. I was married for 40 years. I got divorced. We struggled the full 40 years. But it wasn’t all bad. I still love my ex-wife dearly. I gave her my whole retirement and I went back to work. She deserved it for putting up with me for 40 years.
Present day: My current partner and I have been together 10 years. It has been wonderful. Incredible. She also divorced after a long marriage. She now thinks marriage is a bad idea. I disagree. Get married.
If I had it to do all over again, I would get married young again and try to stay married all my life. If it doesn’t work, then it doesn’t. But I would try. Two young people making their way together in the world I think is the best possible thing.
The part I do agree with is that the government does not need to be involved. Whatever your faith (or reason to marry) is, find someone to do the ceremony without government involvement. Then it is between the two of you and your God.
Reader comment: Argentina sounds marvelous. I’m off to get married in Vietnam traditionally in March. I’ve taken your advice and dumped the majority of stocks, and started buying bullion and coins on eBay. That was at $1,400 an ounce. Thanks.
You’re in the best half of your life. Be thankful for your depression. It SAVED YOUR LIFE!! You’d still be flipping papers and trades being truly miserable. The worst things in life can actually be the ones that grant you freedom.
Feel blessed and grateful, and hug and kiss your girl everyday. You two and your kids are an inspiration. I’m on your tail!
Tom’s response: Please keep writing us at [email protected]! Kate and I read every note you send us.